Premier League

BAHRAIN · 29 MATCHES TRACKED · 16 APR 2026 – 16 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 29 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

75.9%

1X2

22/29

51.7%

O/U 2.5

15/29

55.2%

BTTS

16/29

51.7%

Exact score

15/29

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

80.0%

Hit rate

16/20

1.55

Avg odds

+18.6%

ROI

+3.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

AWAY WIN · N=7 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.45 · +44.9% ROI

HOME WIN · N=7 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.40 · +40.0% ROI

BTTS · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -64.6% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · +100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+50.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+50.7%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+77.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

71%

Hit

+1.0%

ROI

Match log

29 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 7 HIT · 4 MISS

16 MAY Sitra vs Malkiya — NO PICK 1–0 —16 MAY Al-Najma vs Khalidiya Away -8% 1–3 HIT 16 MAY Al-Muharraq vs AAli FC Home -34% 1–0 HIT 15 MAY Al Riffa vs Bahrain SC Home -21% 3–2 HIT 15 MAY Budaiya vs Al Ahli M. BTTS -8% 2–2 HIT 15 MAY Al-Hidd vs Al Shabbab Home -11% 1–0 HIT 11 MAY Malkiya vs Al Riffa — NO PICK 0–2 —11 MAY Khalidiya vs Al-Muharraq — NO PICK 1–2 —11 MAY Al Ahli M. vs Al-Hidd BTTS -6% 0–1 MISS 10 MAY Bahrain SC vs Al-Najma BTTS +2% 0–3 MISS 10 MAY Al Shabbab vs Sitra — NO PICK 1–3 —10 MAY AAli FC vs Budaiya BTTS -11% 2–0 MISS 5 MAY Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab Home -29% 4–0 HIT 5 MAY Sitra vs Al Ahli M. BTTS -5% 0–2 MISS 4 MAY Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq Away -6% 1–3 HIT