Today / Jordan - League / Al Jazeera vs Al Buqaa

Al Jazeera vs Al Buqaa Prediction— Jordan - League

Regular Season - 24 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 15:00

Al Jazeera

PPG 1.09 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Buqaa

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+60.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.8%0-22.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-03.1%1-16.3%1-26.3%1-34.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.2%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.7%3-15.4%3-25.5%3-33.7%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.2%4+-25.3%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 40.8% 2.45 +9.8%

Draw 19.8% 31.3% 3.20 -36.6%

Away win 35.3% 37.7% 2.65 -6.5%

Over 2.5 80.2% 50.0% 2.00 +60.4%

Over 3.5 62.2% 28.6% 3.50 +117.7%

BTTS 77.8% 57.8% 1.73 +34.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 34.6%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob77.8%

H 45% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–2✓ 6.3%

#4 1–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jazeera2.3

Al Buqaa2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.2% · O3.5 PROB 62.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JAZEERA · PPG 1.09

AL BUQAA · PPG 0.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jazeera (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.8%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -36.6%

Al Buqaa (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jazeera face Al Buqaa in Jordan - League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jazeera a 45% chance, the draw 20% and Al Buqaa 35%, so Al Jazeera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Jazeera and 2.0 for Al Buqaa (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jazeera are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.82 for Al Buqaa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +117.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Jazeera vs Al Buqaa Prediction— Jordan - League

Match Preview & Prediction

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