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Peterborough vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

England - League One logo England flag England - League One Regular Season - 36 Weston Homes Stadium· Peterborough Thursday, April 16, 2026 18:45
Peterborough logo Peterborough PPG 1.47
1-3 MISS
Port Vale logo Port Vale PPG 0.79
Home· +15.1% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Port Vale in England - League One on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 73% chance, the draw 16% and Port Vale 10%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Peterborough and 0.8 for Port Vale (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.79 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 73.3%
Odds: 1.57 EV: +15.1%
Draw 16.3%
Odds: 4.20 EV: -31.5%
Away 10.4%
Odds: 5.10 EV: -47.0%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.5% Odds: 1.62 +1.3%
Over 3.5 40.2% Odds: 2.55 +2.5%
BTTS 50.1% Odds: 1.65 -17.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 2-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Peterborough
2.42
Port Vale
0.80

Model Suggestion

Home +15.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%
O2.5/Under 51%
BTTS/No 53%
Score Hit 37%
ROI -55.8%
Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.79)

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