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Peterborough vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 18:45

Peterborough

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Port Vale

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+15.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-17.7%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.6%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-18.1%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 63.7% 1.57 +15.1%

Draw 16.3% 23.8% 4.20 -31.5%

Away win 10.4% 19.6% 5.10 -47.0%

Over 2.5 62.5% 61.7% 1.62 +1.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 39.2% 2.55 +2.5%

BTTS 50.1% 60.6% 1.65 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.1%

H 73% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough2.4

Port Vale0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.47

PORT VALE · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +15.1%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -31.5%

Port Vale (A) 10.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -47.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Port Vale in England - League One on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 73% chance, the draw 16% and Port Vale 10%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Peterborough and 0.8 for Port Vale (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.79 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Peterborough vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions