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Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 22 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 12:00

Mingachevir

PPG 1.70 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Difai Agsu

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.8%1-14.0%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-16.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.2%4+-115.1%4+-25.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.2% 80.0% 1.25 +9.0%

Draw 8.6% 20.0% 5.00 -57.0%

Away win 4.1% 12.8% 7.80 -68.0%

Over 2.5 77.0% — — —

Over 3.5 57.8% 46.5% 2.15 +24.3%

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 87% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 77% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 2–1✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mingachevir3.4

Difai Agsu0.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 57.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 1.70

DIFAI AGSU · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.70), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mingachevir (H) 87.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +9.0%

Draw 8.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -57.0%

Difai Agsu (A) 4.1%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV -68.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mingachevir face Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mingachevir a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Difai Agsu 4%, so Mingachevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Mingachevir and 0.7 for Difai Agsu (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mingachevir are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.50 for Difai Agsu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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