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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, April 16, 2026 12:00 
Mingachevir PPG 1.70 
Difai Agsu PPG 0.50
Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Thursday, April 16, 2026 12:00 Mingachevir PPG 1.702-1 HIT CS5
Difai Agsu PPG 0.50Over3.5· +24.3% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 77.0% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 57.8% Odds: 2.15 +24.3%
BTTS 47.6% Odds: — —
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 3-0 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 4-0 ✘
4th 3-1 ✘
5th 2-1 ✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Mingachevir 3.38
Difai Agsu 0.68
Model Suggestion
Home +9.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+24.3%)
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+24.3%)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
STRONG_HOME 98%
Home team in GOOD form (1.70), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus