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Al-Najma vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 16:00

Al-Najma

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Budaiya

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+49.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.5%0-23.1%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.3%1-17.6%1-26.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.4%3-15.9%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.2%4+-24.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 48.8% 2.05 -2.6%

Draw 20.6% 31.3% 3.20 -34.1%

Away win 31.9% 30.3% 3.30 +5.3%

Over 2.5 74.7% 50.0% 2.00 +49.4%

Over 3.5 54.7% 28.2% 3.55 +94.2%

BTTS 73.0% 56.5% 1.77 +29.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob73.0%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2✓ 6.7%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Najma2.2

Budaiya1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-NAJMA · PPG 1.88

BUDAIYA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Najma (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -34.1%

Budaiya (A) 31.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Najma face Budaiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Najma a 48% chance, the draw 21% and Budaiya 32%, so Al-Najma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al-Najma and 1.8 for Budaiya (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Najma are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.50 for Budaiya. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +94.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Al-Najma vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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