Baku Sporting vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Regular Season - 22 Thursday, April 16, 2026 12:00

Baku Sporting PPG 1.91

0-0 HIT CS5

Safa PPG 2.50

Home· +36.8% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sporting face Safa in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sporting a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Safa 42%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Baku Sporting and 1.4 for Safa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sporting are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 2.50 for Safa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.6%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +36.8%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -10.9%

Away 42.1%

Odds: 1.68 EV: -29.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.1% Odds: 1.80 -13.4%

Over 3.5 26.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Baku Sporting

1.19

Safa

1.41

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+36.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.91)