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Baku Sporting vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 22 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 12:00

Baku Sporting

PPG 1.91 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Safa

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.91)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.5%0-27.4%0-33.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.8%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.2%2-17.4%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 23.1% 4.33 +36.8%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.9%

Away win 42.1% 59.5% 1.68 -29.3%

Over 2.5 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Over 3.5 26.3% — — —

BTTS 52.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.5%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baku Sporting1.2

Safa1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAKU SPORTING · PPG 1.91

SAFA · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.91)

Win probability 1X2

Baku Sporting (H) 31.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +36.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.9%

Safa (A) 42.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baku Sporting face Safa in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baku Sporting a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Safa 42%, so Safa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Baku Sporting and 1.4 for Safa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baku Sporting are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 2.50 for Safa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Baku Sporting vs Safa Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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