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Aluminij vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 15:00

Aluminij

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mura

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 39.7% — a clear edge.

+47.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 39.7% 2.52 +47.9%

Draw 22.8% 29.9% 3.35 -23.6%

Away win 18.5% 39.7% 2.52 -53.4%

Over 2.5 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.1%

BTTS 49.8% 64.5% 1.55 -22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.8%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminij1.8

Mura0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.07

MURA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Aluminij (H) 58.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +47.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -23.6%

Mura (A) 18.5%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -53.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminij face Mura in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminij a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Mura 19%, so Aluminij are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aluminij and 0.9 for Mura (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminij are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.36 for Mura. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Aluminij vs Mura Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions