08:00
H
61.9%
D
16.6%
A
21.5%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 90.1% · BTTS 84.4%
Score
4–1
4–2
HitFootball predictions today · Wed 29 Apr
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 56% 1X2 48% Full record →
11:00
H
49.5% +23.8%
D
21.3% -29.7%
A
29.2% -30.5%
O2.5
O2.5 79.8% · BTTS 77.7%
Score
3–2
0–3
Hit
08:30
H
39.0% -6.4%
D
30.9% +0.4%
A
30.1% -20.2%
BTTS
O2.5 44.8% · BTTS 52.0%
Score
1–1
0–1
Miss12:00
H
52.1% -16.6%
D
28.3% +6.1%
A
19.7% -6.4%
Home
O2.5 47.0% · BTTS 50.3%
Score
2–1
1–0
Hit
11:00
H
37.2% -23.7%
D
31.0% +8.5%
A
31.9% -7.5%
BTTS
O2.5 45.0% · BTTS 52.3%
Score
2–2
0–1
Miss12:30
H
54.6% -25.7%
D
27.6% +15.9%
A
17.8% +21.0%
Home
O2.5 46.9% · BTTS 49.1%
Score
3–0
7–1
Hit
11:00
H
31.6% +29.6%
D
29.8% -0.2%
A
38.7% -31.5%
BTTS
O2.5 49.3% · BTTS 55.5%
Score
2–2
1–0
Miss11:30
H
40.1% +8.3%
D
30.6% -2.1%
A
29.4% -29.4%
BTTS
O2.5 45.8% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–1
1–1
Hit12:00
H
24.9% +54.4%
D
25.3% +6.3%
A
49.8% -28.3%
BTTS
+6.6%
O2.5 62.5% · BTTS 63.8%
Score
1–3
3–0
Miss
14:00
H
46.9% -7.1%
D
34.7% -7.7%
A
18.5% -12.1%
No bet
O2.5 27.6% · BTTS 34.8%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped17:00
H
45.1% +6.4%
D
32.2% -16.9%
A
22.7% -18.3%
No bet
O2.5 37.0% · BTTS 44.2%
Score
2–0
4–1
Skipped
15:00
H
39.0% -27.9%
D
34.3% +9.8%
A
26.7% +5.5%
No bet
O2.5 33.0% · BTTS 42.0%
Score
2–0
1–0
Skipped17:00
H
37.3% -17.9%
D
33.7% -0.6%
A
29.0% -4.3%
No bet
O2.5 35.5% · BTTS 44.4%
Score
1–1
1–2
Skipped17:00
H
62.6% -18.6%
D
24.9% +7.8%
A
12.5% +28.1%
Home
O2.5 47.5% · BTTS 45.0%
Score
3–0
1–2
Miss19:00
H
59.8% -1.3%
D
27.8% -11.0%
A
12.4% -30.6%
Home
O2.5 38.1% · BTTS 38.2%
Score
2–0
4–0
Hit
15:20
H
72.0% -15.0%
D
18.7% +15.9%
A
9.2% +10.4%
Home
O2.5 62.0% · BTTS 50.9%
Score
3–1
3–3
Miss
16:00
H
28.1% +34.9%
D
32.2% +14.3%
A
39.7% -34.9%
No bet
O2.5 39.9% · BTTS 47.8%
Score
0–2
2–3
Skipped16:00
H
70.9% -11.4%
D
20.2% -3.0%
A
8.9% -2.1%
Home
O2.5 55.6% · BTTS 45.8%
Score
3–0
1–0
Hit
16:00
H
13.4% -14.2%
D
21.2% -6.7%
A
65.4% -8.4%
Away
O2.5 63.0% · BTTS 57.0%
Score
1–3
0–2
Hit
16:00
H
21.9% +25.9%
D
25.4% +14.3%
A
52.7% -22.0%
BTTS
O2.5 59.5% · BTTS 60.5%
Score
1–2
0–4
Miss16:10
H
50.2% +55.6%
D
27.1% -1.1%
A
22.6% -52.5%
BTTS
O2.5 53.9% · BTTS 56.7%
Score
2–1
0–2
Miss18:00
H
50.7% -12.3%
D
27.5% +12.8%
A
21.8% -10.6%
BTTS
O2.5 51.8% · BTTS 54.9%
Score
2–1
2–0
Miss16:30
H
47.8%
D
22.8%
A
29.5%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 74.6% · BTTS 73.8%
Score
3–1
1–1
Miss17:00
H
44.8%
D
23.0%
A
32.3%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 75.0% · BTTS 74.6%
Score
3–1
1–3
Hit
17:00
H
16.4%
D
21.2%
A
62.4%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 68.0% · BTTS 63.4%
Score
1–3
1–1
Miss17:00
H
43.3%
D
24.7%
A
32.0%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 68.3% · BTTS 69.6%
Score
3–1
1–3
Hit17:00
H
29.2% +26.4%
D
26.8% -3.5%
A
44.0% -26.5%
BTTS
+0.5%
O2.5 59.6% · BTTS 62.8%
Score
1–2
2–3
Hit
17:00
H
69.6% +35.7%
D
19.9% -30.3%
A
10.6% -60.3%
Home
+35.7%
O2.5 61.5% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
3–1
0–5
Miss17:30
H
68.5%
D
16.8%
A
14.7%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 81.7% · BTTS 72.9%
Score
4–1
4–1
Hit
17:30
H
26.3% +103.8%
D
37.8% +43.6%
A
35.9% -46.9%
No bet
O2.5 24.3% · BTTS 34.5%
Score
1–1
0–1
Skipped
18:00
H
82.7% -12.3%
D
13.1% +24.4%
A
4.2% +5.0%
Home
O2.5 65.7% · BTTS 41.6%
Score
4–0
7–0
Hit
19:15
H
79.4% -10.3%
D
15.0% +18.5%
A
5.5% -1.0%
Home
O2.5 63.7% · BTTS 44.2%
Score
4–0
2–2
Miss—
H
56.5%
D
24.4%
A
19.0%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 59.9% · BTTS 59.2%
Score
2–1
0–7
Hit—
H
41.5%
D
26.8%
A
31.8%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 60.5% · BTTS 63.9%
Score
2–1
1–1
Hit—
H
42.1%
D
35.0%
A
22.9%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 29.7% · BTTS 38.4%
Score
2–0
0–0
Skipped—
H
28.9%
D
27.5%
A
43.6%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 56.7% · BTTS 60.6%
Score
1–2
0–1
Miss—
H
18.3%
D
19.6%
A
62.1%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 76.7% · BTTS 71.3%
Score
1–3
0–2
Miss—
H
48.3%
D
25.9%
A
25.8%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 60.7% · BTTS 62.8%
Score
3–1
1–1
Hit—
H
81.5%
D
12.9%
A
5.6%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 73.0% · BTTS 51.7%
Score
3–1
0–0
Miss—
H
50.7%
D
23.9%
A
25.4%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 68.1% · BTTS 68.0%
Score
3–1
0–1
MissHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.