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Maghreb de Fes vs Hassania Agadir Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 19:00

Maghreb de Fes

PPG 2.43 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hassania Agadir

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-16.7%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-110.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-14.6%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 60.6% 1.65 -1.3%

Draw 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

Away win 12.4% 17.9% 5.60 -30.6%

Over 2.5 38.1% 39.2% 2.55 -2.9%

Over 3.5 18.4% — — —

BTTS 38.2% 43.5% 2.30 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.2%

H 60% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maghreb de Fes1.6

Hassania Agadir0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGHREB DE FES · PPG 2.43

HASSANIA AGADIR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=59.8%

Win probability 1X2

Maghreb de Fes (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -1.3%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.0%

Hassania Agadir (A) 12.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maghreb de Fes face Hassania Agadir in Morocco - Botola Pro on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maghreb de Fes a 60% chance, the draw 28% and Hassania Agadir 12%, so Maghreb de Fes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Maghreb de Fes and 0.6 for Hassania Agadir (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maghreb de Fes are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Hassania Agadir. This match finished 4-0.

Maghreb de Fes vs Hassania Agadir Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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