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Tromso vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:00

Tromso

PPG 2.60 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Brann

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+35.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.5%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-18.2%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-17.5%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.6% 51.3% 1.95 +35.7%

Draw 19.9% 28.6% 3.50 -30.3%

Away win 10.6% 26.7% 3.75 -60.3%

Over 2.5 61.5% 54.6% 1.83 +12.6%

Over 3.5 39.2% 32.3% 3.10 +21.5%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso2.3

Brann0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.60

BRANN · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 69.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +35.7%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -30.3%

Brann (A) 10.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -60.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Brann in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Brann 11%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tromso and 0.8 for Brann (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Brann. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 0-5.

Tromso vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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