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Al Taawon vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 30 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 16:10

Al Taawon

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.5%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.2%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.6%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 32.3% 3.10 +55.6%

Draw 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Away win 22.6% 47.6% 2.10 -52.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 56.7% 64.5% 1.55 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.7%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Taawon1.7

Al Ittihad1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.79

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Al Taawon (H) 50.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +55.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

Al Ittihad (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Taawon face Al Ittihad in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Taawon a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Al Ittihad 23%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Taawon and 1.1 for Al Ittihad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Taawon are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.29 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Taawon vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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