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Mingachevir vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Matchday 24 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 12:30

Mingachevir

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Zaqatala

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.8%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.4%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 73.5% 1.36 -25.7%

Draw 27.6% 23.8% 4.20 +15.9%

Away win 17.8% 14.7% 6.80 +21.0%

Over 2.5 46.9% 62.5% 1.60 -25.0%

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -22.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mingachevir1.7

Zaqatala0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 1.82

ZAQATALA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Win probability 1X2

Mingachevir (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -25.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +15.9%

Zaqatala (A) 17.8%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mingachevir face Zaqatala in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mingachevir a 55% chance, the draw 28% and Zaqatala 18%, so Mingachevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mingachevir and 0.9 for Zaqatala (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mingachevir are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Zaqatala. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 7-1.

Mingachevir vs Zaqatala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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