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Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Wednesday, April 29, 2026 12:30 
Mingachevir PPG 1.82 
Zaqatala PPG 1.00
Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta Wednesday, April 29, 2026 12:30 Mingachevir PPG 1.827-1 MISS
Zaqatala PPG 1.00Away· +21.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 46.9% Odds: 1.60 -25.0%
Over 3.5 25.3% Odds: — —
BTTS 49.1% Odds: — —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Mingachevir 1.68
Zaqatala 0.88
Model Suggestion
Home -25.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -25.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+21.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+21.0%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 80%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=54.6%