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Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 7 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:00

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.54 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Al Ittihad

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.8%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 42.4% 2.36 +6.4%

Draw 32.2% 38.8% 2.58 -16.9%

Away win 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -18.3%

Over 2.5 37.0% 34.5% 2.90 +7.3%

Over 3.5 17.6% 17.4% 5.75 +1.2%

BTTS 44.2% 46.5% 2.15 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wadi Degla1.3

Al Ittihad0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.54

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.54) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Wadi Degla (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +6.4%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -16.9%

Al Ittihad (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wadi Degla face Al Ittihad in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wadi Degla a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Al Ittihad 23%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wadi Degla and 0.9 for Al Ittihad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wadi Degla are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.79 for Al Ittihad. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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