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MOIK vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 24 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 11:00

MOIK

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sahdag

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.9%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 48.8% 2.05 -23.7%

Draw 31.0% 28.6% 3.50 +8.5%

Away win 31.9% 34.5% 2.90 -7.5%

Over 2.5 45.0% 64.5% 1.55 -30.3%

Over 3.5 23.8% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MOIK1.3

Sahdag1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOIK · PPG 1.73

SAHDAG · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

MOIK (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +8.5%

Sahdag (A) 31.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

MOIK face Sahdag in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MOIK a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Sahdag 32%, so MOIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for MOIK and 1.2 for Sahdag (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MOIK are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.33 for Sahdag. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-1.

MOIK vs Sahdag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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