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Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 30 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 18:00

Al Nassr

PPG 2.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.7%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.4%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 57.8% 1.73 -12.3%

Draw 27.5% 24.4% 4.10 +12.8%

Away win 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -10.6%

Over 2.5 51.8% 66.7% 1.50 -22.3%

Over 3.5 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -33.2%

BTTS 54.9% 67.6% 1.48 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nassr1.7

Al Ahli Jeddah1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASSR · PPG 2.79

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.79) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Win probability 1X2

Al Nassr (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -12.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.8%

Al Ahli Jeddah (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nassr face Al Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nassr a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ahli Jeddah 22%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Nassr and 1.1 for Al Ahli Jeddah (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nassr are averaging 2.79 points per game versus 2.14 for Al Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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