Al Nassr vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 30 King Saud University Stadium· Riyadh Wednesday, April 29, 2026 18:00

Al Nassr PPG 2.79

2-0 HIT CS3

Al Ahli Jeddah PPG 2.14

Draw· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nassr face Al Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nassr a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ahli Jeddah 22%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Nassr and 1.1 for Al Ahli Jeddah (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nassr are averaging 2.79 points per game versus 2.14 for Al Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.7%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -12.3%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +12.8%

Away 21.8%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -10.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.8% Odds: 1.50 -22.3%

Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: 2.25 -33.2%

BTTS 54.9% Odds: 1.48 -18.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Nassr

1.70

Al Ahli Jeddah

1.05

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+12.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.79) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)