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One Taguig vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 11:00

One Taguig

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Manila Digger

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.4%1-16.3%1-25.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.4%4+-26.0%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 40.0% 2.50 +23.8%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -29.7%

Away win 29.2% 42.0% 2.38 -30.5%

Over 2.5 79.8% — — —

Over 3.5 61.7% — — —

BTTS 77.7% 74.1% 1.35 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob77.7%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Taguig2.4

Manila Digger1.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 3.00

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.75)

Win probability 1X2

One Taguig (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +23.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -29.7%

Manila Digger (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -30.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Taguig face Manila Digger in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Taguig a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Manila Digger 29%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for One Taguig and 1.9 for Manila Digger (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Taguig are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.75 for Manila Digger. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 0-3.

One Taguig vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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