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Al-Muharraq vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 16:00

Al-Muharraq

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Budaiya

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-18.4%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.9%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-16.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% 80.0% 1.25 -11.4%

Draw 20.2% 20.8% 4.80 -3.0%

Away win 8.9% 9.1% 11.00 -2.1%

Over 2.5 55.6% 63.7% 1.57 -12.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

BTTS 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.8%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Muharraq2.2

Budaiya0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.22

BUDAIYA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.22) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Muharraq (H) 70.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -3.0%

Budaiya (A) 8.9%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Muharraq face Budaiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Muharraq a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Budaiya 9%, so Al-Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al-Muharraq and 0.7 for Budaiya (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Muharraq are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.67 for Budaiya. This match finished 1-0.

Al-Muharraq vs Budaiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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