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Semen Padang vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 08:30

Semen Padang

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Madura Utd

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.7%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.5%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 41.7% 2.40 -6.4%

Draw 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away win 30.1% 37.7% 2.65 -20.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -18.6%

BTTS 52.0% 57.8% 1.73 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.0%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Semen Padang1.3

Madura Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.86

MADURA UTD · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Semen Padang (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -6.4%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.4%

Madura Utd (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Semen Padang face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Semen Padang a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Madura Utd 30%, so Semen Padang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Semen Padang and 1.1 for Madura Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Semen Padang are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.93 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Semen Padang vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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