Semen Padang vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

Semen Padang face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Semen Padang a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Madura Utd 30%, so Semen Padang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Semen Padang and 1.1 for Madura Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Semen Padang are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.93 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-1.