Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / Rayong vs Buriram Utd

Rayong vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 12:00

Rayong

PPG 1.77 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Buriram Utd

PPG 2.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.6%0-27.3%0-34.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.2%1-110.0%1-29.5%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-16.6%2-26.3%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.7%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 16.1% 6.20 +54.4%

Draw 25.3% 23.8% 4.20 +6.3%

Away win 49.8% 69.4% 1.44 -28.3%

Over 2.5 62.5% 63.7% 1.57 -1.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 42.0% 2.38 -4.1%

BTTS 63.8% 59.9% 1.67 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.8%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayong1.3

Buriram Utd1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYONG · PPG 1.77

BURIRAM UTD · PPG 2.46

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.46) vs Home GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Rayong (H) 24.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +54.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.3%

Buriram Utd (A) 49.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayong face Buriram Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayong a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Buriram Utd 50%, so Buriram Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rayong and 1.9 for Buriram Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayong are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 2.46 for Buriram Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Rayong vs Buriram Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Thailand - Thai League 1 Predictions