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Sporting CP vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 19:15

Sporting CP

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tondela

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.4% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.0%1-16.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-17.3%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-19.2%4+-22.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.4% 88.5% 1.13 -10.3%

Draw 15.0% 12.7% 7.90 +18.5%

Away win 5.5% 5.6% 18.00 -1.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 75.2% 1.33 -15.3%

Over 3.5 41.5% 54.1% 1.85 -23.2%

BTTS 44.2% 47.6% 2.10 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.2%

H 79% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 3–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.7

Tondela0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.43

TONDELA · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 79.4%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -10.3%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +18.5%

Tondela (A) 5.5%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Tondela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 79% chance, the draw 15% and Tondela 6%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Sporting CP and 0.6 for Tondela (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.79 for Tondela. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Sporting CP vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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