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Wydad vs Yacoub El Manso Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:00

Wydad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Yacoub El Manso

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.5%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.1%1-110.2%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.8%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 76.9% 1.30 -18.6%

Draw 24.9% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

Away win 12.5% 9.8% 10.25 +28.1%

Over 2.5 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

Over 3.5 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -25.2%

BTTS 45.0% 47.6% 2.10 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.0%

H 63% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wydad1.8

Yacoub El Manso0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WYDAD · PPG 2.00

YACOUB EL MANSO · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=62.6%

Win probability 1X2

Wydad (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -18.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +7.8%

Yacoub El Manso (A) 12.5%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wydad face Yacoub El Manso in Morocco - Botola Pro on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wydad a 63% chance, the draw 25% and Yacoub El Manso 13%, so Wydad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Wydad and 0.7 for Yacoub El Manso (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wydad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Yacoub El Manso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Wydad vs Yacoub El Manso Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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