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Al Ahli M. vs Al Riffa Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 16:00

Al Ahli M.

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Al Riffa

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-112.8%0-28.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.5%1-113.2%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.4%2-16.7%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 20.8% 4.80 +34.9%

Draw 32.2% 28.2% 3.55 +14.3%

Away win 39.7% 61.0% 1.64 -34.9%

Over 2.5 39.9% 51.8% 1.93 -23.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 30.8% 3.25 -36.0%

BTTS 47.8% 54.6% 1.83 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.8%

A 40% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli M.1.0

Al Riffa1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI M. · PPG 1.11

AL RIFFA · PPG 2.22

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli M. (H) 28.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +34.9%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +14.3%

Al Riffa (A) 39.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli M. face Al Riffa in Bahrain - Premier League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli M. a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Al Riffa 40%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Ahli M. and 1.3 for Al Riffa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli M. are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.22 for Al Riffa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Al Ahli M. vs Al Riffa Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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