Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Gouna vs Haras El Hodood

El Gouna vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 7 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 14:00

El Gouna

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Haras El Hodood

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-110.4%0-23.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-112.3%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.2%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 50.5% 1.98 -7.1%

Draw 34.7% 37.6% 2.66 -7.7%

Away win 18.5% 21.1% 4.75 -12.1%

Over 2.5 27.6% 34.5% 2.90 -20.0%

Over 3.5 11.2% 17.4% 5.75 -35.6%

BTTS 34.8% 44.4% 2.25 -21.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob34.8%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 19.0%

#3 1–1✓ 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Gouna1.2

Haras El Hodood0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GOUNA · PPG 1.17

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

El Gouna (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -7.7%

Haras El Hodood (A) 18.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Gouna face Haras El Hodood in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna a 47% chance, the draw 35% and Haras El Hodood 19%, so El Gouna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for El Gouna and 0.6 for Haras El Hodood (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.42 for Haras El Hodood. This match finished 1-1.

El Gouna vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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