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Arsenal W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Leicester W

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.7% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-11.9%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.6%1-15.4%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.4%2-17.7%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.6%3-17.2%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.6%4+-110.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.7% 94.3% 1.06 -12.3%

Draw 13.1% 10.5% 9.50 +24.4%

Away win 4.2% 4.0% 25.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 65.7% 83.3% 1.20 -21.2%

Over 3.5 43.7% 65.4% 1.53 -33.1%

BTTS 41.6% 46.5% 2.15 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.6%

H 83% / xG 2.8-0.6 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 3–0 12.6%

#3 4–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal W2.8

Leicester W0.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL W · PPG 2.33

LEICESTER W · PPG 0.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.22) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal W (H) 82.7%

ODDS 1.06 · IMPLIED 94.3% EV -12.3%

Draw 13.1%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +24.4%

Leicester W (A) 4.2%

ODDS 25.00 · IMPLIED 4.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal W face Leicester W in England - FA WSL on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal W a 83% chance, the draw 13% and Leicester W 4%, so Arsenal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Arsenal W and 0.6 for Leicester W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.22 for Leicester W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 7-0.

Arsenal W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - FA WSL Predictions