Arsenal W vs Leicester W Prediction— England - FA WSL

England - FA WSL Regular Season - 14 Emirates Stadium· London Wednesday, April 29, 2026 18:00

Arsenal W PPG 2.33

7-0 MISS

Leicester W PPG 0.22

Draw· +24.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal W face Leicester W in England - FA WSL on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal W a 83% chance, the draw 13% and Leicester W 4%, so Arsenal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Arsenal W and 0.6 for Leicester W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.22 for Leicester W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 7-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 82.7%

Odds: 1.06 EV: -12.3%

Draw 13.1%

Odds: 9.50 EV: +24.4%

Away 4.2%

Odds: 25.00 EV: +5.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.7% Odds: 1.20 -21.2%

Over 3.5 43.7% Odds: 1.53 -33.1%

BTTS 41.6% Odds: 2.15 -10.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Arsenal W

2.81

Leicester W

0.57

Model SuggestionHome -12.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -12.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+24.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 42%

Score Hit 42%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.22) - Strong consensus