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Shabab Al Ahli vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League logo United-Arab-Emirates flag United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League Regular Season - 23 Al Rashid Stadium· Dubai Wednesday, April 29, 2026 15:20
Shabab Al Ahli logo Shabab Al Ahli PPG 2.50
3-3 MISS
Khorfakkan logo Khorfakkan PPG 1.30
Draw· +15.9% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli face Khorfakkan in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Khorfakkan 9%, so Shabab Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Shabab Al Ahli and 0.8 for Khorfakkan (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Khorfakkan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 72.0%
Odds: 1.18 EV: -15.0%
Draw 18.7%
Odds: 6.20 EV: +15.9%
Away 9.2%
Odds: 12.00 EV: +10.4%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.0% Odds: 1.42 -12.0%
Over 3.5 39.8% Odds: 2.10 -16.4%
BTTS 50.9% Odds: 1.95 -0.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 3-0
3rd 2-1
4th 1-1
5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Shabab Al Ahli
2.41
Khorfakkan
0.79

Model Suggestion

Home -15.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -15.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+15.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 52%
Score Hit 52%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
95%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.30) - Strong consensus

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