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Shabab Al Ahli vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 15:20

Shabab Al Ahli

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Khorfakkan

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-17.8%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.5%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.0%4+-23.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.0% 84.7% 1.18 -15.0%

Draw 18.7% 16.1% 6.20 +15.9%

Away win 9.2% 8.3% 12.00 +10.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 70.4% 1.42 -12.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 47.6% 2.10 -16.4%

BTTS 50.9% 51.3% 1.95 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shabab Al Ahli2.4

Khorfakkan0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHABAB AL AHLI · PPG 2.50

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.30) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shabab Al Ahli (H) 72.0%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -15.0%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +15.9%

Khorfakkan (A) 9.2%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli face Khorfakkan in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Khorfakkan 9%, so Shabab Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Shabab Al Ahli and 0.8 for Khorfakkan (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Khorfakkan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Shabab Al Ahli vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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