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Polokwane vs Mamelodi S. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 13 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:30

Polokwane

PPG 1.46 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-117.1%0-28.0%0-32.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.9%1-113.1%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.3%2-15.0%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.4%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 12.9% 7.75 +103.8%

Draw 37.8% 26.3% 3.80 +43.6%

Away win 35.9% 67.6% 1.48 -46.9%

Over 2.5 24.3% 44.4% 2.25 -45.3%

Over 3.5 9.4% 23.8% 4.20 -60.5%

BTTS 34.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob34.5%

D 38% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 0–1✓ 17.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 13.9%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polokwane0.8

Mamelodi S.0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.3% · O3.5 PROB 9.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POLOKWANE · PPG 1.46

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Polokwane (H) 26.3%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +103.8%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +43.6%

Mamelodi S. (A) 35.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -46.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polokwane face Mamelodi S. in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polokwane a 26% chance, the draw 38% and Mamelodi S. 36%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Polokwane and 0.9 for Mamelodi S. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polokwane are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 2.00 for Mamelodi S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +103.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Polokwane vs Mamelodi S. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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