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Dewa Utd vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 12:00

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Persijap

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.2%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.7%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 62.5% 1.60 -16.6%

Draw 28.3% 26.7% 3.75 +6.1%

Away win 19.7% 21.1% 4.75 -6.4%

Over 2.5 47.0% 61.7% 1.62 -23.9%

Over 3.5 25.4% 40.8% 2.45 -37.8%

BTTS 50.3% 63.7% 1.57 -21.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0✓ 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dewa Utd1.6

Persijap0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.64

PERSIJAP · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.64) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Dewa Utd (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -16.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +6.1%

Persijap (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dewa Utd face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dewa Utd a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Persijap 20%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dewa Utd and 0.9 for Persijap (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dewa Utd are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.71 for Persijap. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Dewa Utd vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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