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Dewa Utd vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 logo Indonesia flag Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 30 Indomilk Arena· Tangerang Wednesday, April 29, 2026 12:00
Dewa Utd logo Dewa Utd PPG 1.64
1-0 HIT CS2
Persijap logo Persijap PPG 0.71
Draw· +6.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dewa Utd face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dewa Utd a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Persijap 20%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dewa Utd and 0.9 for Persijap (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dewa Utd are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.71 for Persijap. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.1%
Odds: 1.60 EV: -16.6%
Draw 28.3%
Odds: 3.75 EV: +6.1%
Away 19.7%
Odds: 4.75 EV: -6.4%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.0% Odds: 1.62 -23.9%
Over 3.5 25.4% Odds: 2.45 -37.8%
BTTS 50.3% Odds: 1.57 -21.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Dewa Utd
1.63
Persijap
0.93

Model Suggestion

Home -16.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -16.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 49%
Score Hit 43%
ROI -7.4%
Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.64) vs P(Home)=52.1%

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