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Chiangrai Utd vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 24 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 11:00

Chiangrai Utd

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ratchaburi

PPG 2.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.9%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 24.4% 4.10 +29.6%

Draw 29.8% 29.9% 3.35 -0.2%

Away win 38.7% 56.5% 1.77 -31.5%

Over 2.5 49.3% 56.5% 1.77 -12.7%

Over 3.5 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -20.5%

BTTS 55.5% 60.6% 1.65 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.5%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chiangrai Utd1.2

Ratchaburi1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIANGRAI UTD · PPG 1.38

RATCHABURI · PPG 2.15

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Chiangrai Utd (H) 31.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +29.6%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.2%

Ratchaburi (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chiangrai Utd face Ratchaburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chiangrai Utd a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Ratchaburi 39%, so Ratchaburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chiangrai Utd and 1.4 for Ratchaburi (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chiangrai Utd are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.15 for Ratchaburi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Chiangrai Utd vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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