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Al Riyadh vs Al Quadisiya Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 30 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 16:00

Al Riyadh

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Quadisiya

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.7%0-28.3%0-35.3%0-4+3.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.8%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.1%2-25.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 17.4% 5.75 +25.9%

Draw 25.4% 22.2% 4.50 +14.3%

Away win 52.7% 67.6% 1.48 -22.0%

Over 2.5 59.5% 67.6% 1.48 -11.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 46.5% 2.15 -20.2%

BTTS 60.5% 64.5% 1.55 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.5%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riyadh1.2

Al Quadisiya1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIYADH · PPG 1.00

AL QUADISIYA · PPG 2.07

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Riyadh (H) 21.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +25.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +14.3%

Al Quadisiya (A) 52.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riyadh face Al Quadisiya in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riyadh a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Al Quadisiya 53%, so Al Quadisiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Riyadh and 1.9 for Al Quadisiya (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riyadh are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.07 for Al Quadisiya. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.9%. This match finished 0-4.

Al Riyadh vs Al Quadisiya Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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