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Uthai Thani vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 24 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 11:30

Uthai Thani

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bangkok Utd

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.3%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 37.0% 2.70 +8.3%

Draw 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away win 29.4% 41.7% 2.40 -29.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.6% 1.83 -16.2%

Over 3.5 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -26.8%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uthai Thani1.4

Bangkok Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UTHAI THANI · PPG 1.36

BANGKOK UTD · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Uthai Thani (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.1%

Bangkok Utd (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uthai Thani face Bangkok Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uthai Thani a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Bangkok Utd 29%, so Uthai Thani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Uthai Thani and 1.1 for Bangkok Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uthai Thani are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.38 for Bangkok Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Uthai Thani vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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