Today / San-Marino - Campionato / La Fiorita vs San Marino Academy
La Fiorita vs San Marino Academy Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato
Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00
// Model verdict
BTTS 63% chance
Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 34.2% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%
Form & verdict
LA FIORITA · PPG 1.82
SAN MARINO ACADEMY · PPG 0.91
xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
La Fiorita face San Marino Academy in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Fiorita a 47% chance, the draw 28% and San Marino Academy 25%, so La Fiorita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for La Fiorita and 1.3 for San Marino Academy (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Fiorita are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.91 for San Marino Academy. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +150.2%.