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La Fiorita vs San Marino Academy Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

La Fiorita logo
La Fiorita
PPG 1.82 · HOME
LAST 5
D ····
VS
UPCOMING
San Marino Academy logo
San Marino Academy
PPG 0.91 · AWAY
LAST 5
L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 34.2% — a clear edge.

+55.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.1%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 46.6% 90.1% 1.11 -48.3%
Draw 28.0% 13.3% 7.50 +66.0%
Away win 25.4% 5.9% 17.00 +199.1%
Over 2.5 53.8% 66.7% 1.50 -19.3%
Over 3.5 32.4% 46.1% 2.17 -29.7%
BTTS 53.4% 34.2% 2.92 +55.9%
Home O1.5 49.9% 82.0% 1.22 -39.1%
Away O1.5 36.8% 14.7% 6.80 +150.2%

League track record

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5 63%
BTTS 46%
Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.4%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%
#2 2–1 9.5%
#3 2–0 7.6%
#4 0–0 4.9%
#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Fiorita1.8
San Marino Academy1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LA FIORITA · PPG 1.82

SAN MARINO ACADEMY · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
Chance this pick lands
63%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

La Fiorita (H) 46.6%
ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -48.3%
Draw 28.0%
ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +66.0%
San Marino Academy (A) 25.4%
ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +199.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Fiorita face San Marino Academy in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Fiorita a 47% chance, the draw 28% and San Marino Academy 25%, so La Fiorita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for La Fiorita and 1.3 for San Marino Academy (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Fiorita are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.91 for San Marino Academy. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +150.2%.

PredictVantage

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18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org