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Charlton Athletic W vs Liverpool W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Charlton Athletic W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool W

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.8%0-24.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.2%1-111.1%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.0%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 25.0% 4.00 +81.6%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 30.1% 57.1% 1.75 -47.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 28.6% 3.50 +68.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlton Athletic W1.6

Liverpool W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLTON ATHLETIC W · PPG 1.50

LIVERPOOL W · PPG 0.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Charlton Athletic W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +81.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Liverpool W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -47.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlton Athletic W face Liverpool W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlton Athletic W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Liverpool W 30%, so Charlton Athletic W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Charlton Athletic W and 1.4 for Liverpool W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlton Athletic W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.82 for Liverpool W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.3%.

Charlton Athletic W vs Liverpool W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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