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Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Estac Troyes

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Strasbourg

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.6%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.8%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 33.3% 3.00 +52.1%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 25.0% 44.4% 2.25 -26.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.4% 1.91 +2.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 38.2% 2.62 +30.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estac Troyes1.7

Strasbourg1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTAC TROYES · PPG 1.42

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estac Troyes (H) 50.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +52.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Strasbourg (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estac Troyes face Strasbourg in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estac Troyes a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Strasbourg 25%, so Estac Troyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Estac Troyes and 1.2 for Strasbourg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estac Troyes are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.17 for Strasbourg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.3%.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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