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Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:30

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

São Bernardo

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

Away 68% chance

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-112.1%0-211.3%0-37.0%0-4+5.0%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.5%2-14.6%2-24.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% 13.3% 7.50 +14.2%

Draw 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -4.6%

Away win 60.4% 71.4% 1.40 -15.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 39.7% 2.52 -20.1%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 20.8% 4.80 +47.8%

Away O1.5 58.3% 67.6% 1.48 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.9%

A 60% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.3%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.9

São Bernardo1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.54

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

68%

DANGER

xG gap -1.00 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 16.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +14.2%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.6%

São Bernardo (A) 60.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 17% chance, the draw 23% and São Bernardo 60%, so São Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ponte Preta and 1.9 for São Bernardo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 1.67 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +47.8%.

Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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