Today / USA - USL League One / Alta vs One Knoxville

Alta vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:30

Alta

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

One Knoxville

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.4%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.5%1-110.3%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.2%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 33.3% 3.00 +39.8%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 29.7% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.9% 37.2% 2.69 -0.7%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 41.2% 2.43 +35.6%

Away O1.5 36.3% 52.1% 1.92 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alta1.9

One Knoxville1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTA · PPG 1.62

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.73

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alta (H) 46.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +39.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

One Knoxville (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alta face One Knoxville in USA - USL League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alta a 47% chance, the draw 24% and One Knoxville 30%, so Alta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alta and 1.2 for One Knoxville (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alta are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.73 for One Knoxville. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +64.3%.

Alta vs One Knoxville Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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