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Floresta vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Second Stage · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Floresta

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maringá

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 46% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+46.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.8%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.7%1-110.6%1-26.4%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 33.3% 3.00 +48.8%

Draw 23.7% 38.2% 2.62 -22.7%

Away win 26.7% 40.8% 2.45 -20.8%

Over 2.5 58.5% 40.0% 2.50 +46.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 22.2% 4.50 +63.8%

BTTS 55.9% 50.0% 2.00 +11.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 29.4% 3.40 +82.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta1.8

Maringá1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.80

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.60

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 49.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +48.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.7%

Maringá (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Maringá in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Maringá 27%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Floresta and 1.2 for Maringá (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Maringá. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +116.6%.

Floresta vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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