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Rudes vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Rudes

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.6%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 10.5% 9.50 +226.8%

Draw 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Away win 43.0% 77.5% 1.29 -44.5%

Over 2.5 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 44.4% 2.25 -9.6%

BTTS 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Home O1.5 46.3% 20.0% 5.00 +131.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 73.5% 1.36 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.5%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudes1.6

HNK Hajduk Split1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDES · PPG 1.50

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.58

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rudes (H) 34.4%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +226.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

HNK Hajduk Split (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudes face HNK Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudes a 34% chance, the draw 23% and HNK Hajduk Split 43%, so HNK Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rudes and 1.6 for HNK Hajduk Split (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudes are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.58 for HNK Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +247.3%.

Rudes vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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