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Sireți vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Sireți

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zimbru

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away 77% chance

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-117.4%0-212.9%0-36.4%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.5%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-02.5%2-13.8%2-22.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.3% 9.1% 11.00 +47.6%

Draw 24.4% 17.4% 5.75 +24.2%

Away win 59.3% 84.7% 1.18 -30.0%

Over 2.5 44.5% 63.7% 1.57 -30.1%

Over 3.5 25.6% 42.4% 2.36 -23.8%

BTTS 48.0% 43.3% 2.31 +10.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 12.8% 7.80 +140.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 78.1% 1.28 -46.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.0%

A 59% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–2 12.9%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sireți0.7

Zimbru1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SIREȚI · PPG 0.80

ZIMBRU · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

77%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sireți (H) 16.3%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +47.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +24.2%

Zimbru (A) 59.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sireți face Zimbru in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sireți a 16% chance, the draw 24% and Zimbru 59%, so Zimbru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sireți and 1.5 for Zimbru (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sireți are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Zimbru. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +140.2%.

Sireți vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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