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Pennarossa vs Murata Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Pennarossa

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Murata

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.6%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.6%1-111.1%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.4%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.3%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 76.9% 1.30 -39.6%

Draw 24.2% 20.0% 5.00 +12.6%

Away win 29.3% 14.3% 7.00 +63.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 34.2% 47.6% 2.10 -28.2%

BTTS 55.9% 58.1% 1.72 -3.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% — — —

Away O1.5 38.1% 24.4% 4.10 +56.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pennarossa1.7

Murata1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PENNAROSSA · PPG 1.22

MURATA · PPG 0.62

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pennarossa (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -39.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.6%

Murata (A) 29.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +63.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pennarossa face Murata in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pennarossa a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Murata 29%, so Pennarossa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pennarossa and 1.3 for Murata (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pennarossa are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.62 for Murata. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +56.2%.

Pennarossa vs Murata Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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