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Sunderland W vs Bristol City W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Sunderland W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bristol City W

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 24.4% 4.10 +86.1%

Draw 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -4.1%

Away win 30.1% 60.6% 1.65 -50.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.5% 2.74 -0.3%

BTTS 60.1% 59.5% 1.68 +1.0%

Home O1.5 47.6% 30.5% 3.28 +56.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 59.9% 1.67 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland W1.6

Bristol City W1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND W · PPG 1.29

BRISTOL CITY W · PPG 1.47

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +86.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.1%

Bristol City W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -50.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland W face Bristol City W in England - Women's Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Bristol City W 30%, so Sunderland W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sunderland W and 1.3 for Bristol City W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.47 for Bristol City W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +56.1%.

Sunderland W vs Bristol City W Prediction— England - Women's Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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