Today / Kuwait - Premier League / Al Shabab vs Kazma

Al Shabab vs Kazma Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:50

Al Shabab

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Kazma

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.0%0-27.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.9%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-17.5%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 21.1% 4.75 +69.1%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 37.1% 61.7% 1.62 -39.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 32.2% 26.7% 3.75 +20.8%

Away O1.5 39.8% 54.6% 1.83 -27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 31.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.2

Kazma1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.38

KAZMA · PPG 1.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 35.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +69.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Kazma (A) 37.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Kazma in Kuwait - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Kazma 37%, so Kazma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Shabab and 1.3 for Kazma (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.93 for Kazma. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +63.1%.

Al Shabab vs Kazma Prediction— Kuwait - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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