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Defensores W vs Flamengo FBC W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Defensores W

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo FBC W

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.9%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.0%1-16.8%1-25.8%1-33.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.7%3-16.4%3-25.5%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.7%4+-25.7%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 14.3% 7.00 +219.9%

Draw 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

Away win 34.2% 76.9% 1.30 -55.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 50.5% 1.98 -2.2%

BTTS 65.4% 60.6% 1.65 +7.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 26.7% 3.75 +148.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob65.4%

H 46% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 5.8%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores W2.4

Flamengo FBC W1.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES W · PPG 1.12

FLAMENGO FBC W · PPG 0.29

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensores W (H) 45.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +219.9%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.3%

Flamengo FBC W (A) 34.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -55.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores W face Flamengo FBC W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores W a 46% chance, the draw 20% and Flamengo FBC W 34%, so Defensores W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Defensores W and 1.7 for Flamengo FBC W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores W are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.29 for Flamengo FBC W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +148.6%.

Defensores W vs Flamengo FBC W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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