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Temperley vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Temperley

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

UPCOMING

Colegiales

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-16.6%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-110.6%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.5%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 50.0% 2.00 +8.4%

Draw 24.2% 35.7% 2.80 -19.3%

Away win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 44.5% 32.3% 3.10 +38.0%

Over 3.5 25.5% 14.3% 7.00 +47.1%

BTTS 48.0% 40.8% 2.45 +17.6%

Home O1.5 47.9% 36.4% 2.75 +31.7%

Away O1.5 15.3% 18.2% 5.50 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 2–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Temperley1.6

Colegiales0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TEMPERLEY · PPG 2.08

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.46

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Temperley (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +8.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.3%

Colegiales (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Temperley face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Temperley a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Colegiales 22%, so Temperley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Temperley and 0.6 for Colegiales (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Temperley are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.46 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.1%.

Temperley vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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