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Everton vs Manchester United Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Everton

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Manchester United

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 30.8% 3.25 +51.1%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 29.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 40.0% 2.50 +20.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 54.6% 1.83 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.6

Manchester United1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.59

MANCHESTER UNITED · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 46.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +51.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Manchester United (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Manchester United in England - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Manchester United 29%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Everton and 1.2 for Manchester United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.27 for Manchester United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +48.2%.

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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