Today / Brazil - Serie A / Coritiba vs Mirassol

Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Coritiba

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

UPCOMING

Mirassol

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home 46% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+29.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.0%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.8%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.9%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 42.0% 2.38 +29.5%

Draw 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Away win 21.7% 34.5% 2.90 -22.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Away O1.5 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.8

Mirassol0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.50

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 54.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +29.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Mirassol (A) 21.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Mirassol 22%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Coritiba and 0.9 for Mirassol (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.3%.

Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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