Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United

South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Quarter-finals ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 07:00

South Melbourne

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.4%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-17.6%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

Draw 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Away win 41.5% 34.5% 2.90 +20.3%

Over 2.5 57.7% 57.8% 1.73 -0.2%

Over 3.5 35.7% 38.2% 2.62 -6.5%

BTTS 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

Away O1.5 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.3

Heidelberg United1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 1.00

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Heidelberg United (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Heidelberg United in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Heidelberg United 42%, so Heidelberg United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for South Melbourne and 1.5 for Heidelberg United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.62 for Heidelberg United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +19.2%.

South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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