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Espanyol vs Sevilla Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Sevilla

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 47% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+41.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.9%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 43.5% 2.30 +15.2%

Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -16.5%

Away win 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 42.0% 2.38 +41.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 22.2% 4.50 +63.8%

BTTS 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Home O1.5 52.2% 40.0% 2.50 +30.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 28.6% 3.50 +16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 2.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.8

Sevilla1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.44

SEVILLA · PPG 1.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +15.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.5%

Sevilla (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Sevilla in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Sevilla 27%, so Espanyol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Espanyol and 1.1 for Sevilla (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.45 for Sevilla. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.8%.

Espanyol vs Sevilla Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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