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Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:45

Rosario Central

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Newells Old Boys

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 50% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.1%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-19.9%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 61.7% 1.62 -12.5%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 22.5% 17.2% 5.80 +18.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 40.0% 2.50 +34.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 20.0% 5.00 +58.0%

BTTS 52.1% 42.0% 2.38 +24.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 47.6% 2.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 23.0% 14.3% 7.00 +36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central2.0

Newells Old Boys0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.85

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -12.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Newells Old Boys (A) 22.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Newells Old Boys in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Newells Old Boys 23%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rosario Central and 0.8 for Newells Old Boys (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.82 for Newells Old Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +58.0%.

Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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