Leagues / WALES / Premier League

Premier League

WALES · 29 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

Upcoming Premier League predictions

6 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT18:45 Caernarfon Town vs Flint Town United Over 2.5 65% 1.48 -4%4 SEPT18:45 Briton Ferry vs Airbus UK BTTS 62% 1.45 -11%4 SEPT18:45 Cardiff MET vs Cambrian & Clydach Over 2.5 64% 1.65 +5%4 SEPT18:45 GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC Home 67% 1.40 -6%4 SEPT18:45 Holywell vs Trefelin Over 2.5 68% 1.53 +5%4 SEPT18:45 Llandudno vs Ammanford AFC HO1.5 — — —

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 23 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

65.2%

1X2

15/23

65.2%

O/U 2.5

15/23

60.9%

BTTS

14/23

52.2%

Exact score

12/23

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

80.0%

Hit rate

4/5

1.68

Avg odds

+34.2%

ROI

+1.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.72 · +15.7% ROI

BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +64.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

80%

Hit

+34.2%

ROI

Match log

23 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 14 PICKS · 7 HIT · 7 MISS

31 AUG Briton Ferry vs Barry Town BTTS -15% 1–4 HIT 31 AUG Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Away +5% 1–2 HIT 31 AUG Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Over 2.5 -0% 2–3 HIT 28 AUG Cardiff MET vs Briton Ferry BTTS -17% 3–0 MISS 28 AUG The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay Home -20% 5–1 HIT 28 AUG Penybont vs Flint Town United Home -13% 1–1 MISS 21 AUG Cardiff MET vs The New Saints BTTS -5% 0–5 MISS 21 AUG Flint Town United vs Briton Ferry BTTS -11% 0–1 MISS 15 AUG Barry Town vs Cardiff MET BTTS -14% 1–0 MISS 15 AUG Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay BTTS -16% 3–0 MISS 14 AUG Haverfordwest County AFC vs Penybont — NO PICK 0–3 —14 AUG The New Saints vs Briton Ferry HO1.5 1–0 MISS 7 AUG Caernarfon Town vs Penybont BTTS -10% 1–2 HIT 7 AUG The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County AFC Home -31% 2–0 HIT 7 AUG Flint Town United vs Barry Town Over 2.5 +13% 2–3 HIT