Leagues / WALES / Premier League

Premier League

WALES · 6 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 18 APR 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 6 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

66.7%

1X2

4/6

66.7%

O/U 2.5

4/6

66.7%

BTTS

4/6

83.3%

Exact score

5/6

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

60.0%

Hit rate

3/5

1.55

Avg odds

-14.8%

ROI

-0.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.49 · -41.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.48 · +48.0% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -100.0% ROI

BTTS · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-20.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

67%

Hit

-11.3%

ROI

Match log

6 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS

18 APR Bala Town vs Briton Ferry — NO PICK 1–2 —18 APR Barry vs The New Saints Away -15% 0–1 HIT 18 APR Caernarfon vs Penybont Over 2.5 +15% 2–0 MISS 18 APR Cardiff MU vs Flint BTTS +7% 2–2 HIT 18 APR Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay Home -6% 1–1 MISS 18 APR Haverfordwest vs Llanelli Town Home -3% 6–0 HIT