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Flint Town United vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Flint Town United

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.0%0-26.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.7%1-111.1%1-29.1%1-34.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-17.6%2-26.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 51.3% 1.95 -33.9%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 42.3% 32.3% 3.10 +31.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

BTTS 61.3% 69.0% 1.45 -11.1%

Home O1.5 38.2% 58.8% 1.70 -35.1%

Away O1.5 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 0–1✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flint Town United1.4

Briton Ferry1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLINT TOWN UNITED · PPG 0.91

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flint Town United (H) 33.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -33.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Briton Ferry (A) 42.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flint Town United face Briton Ferry in Wales - Premier League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flint Town United a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Briton Ferry 42%, so Briton Ferry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Flint Town United and 1.6 for Briton Ferry (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flint Town United are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.27 for Briton Ferry. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Flint Town United vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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